A regular instrument of choice is the spread of fake news and conspiracy theories, many of which suggest a hidden Western agenda. Among the most visible actions is the active propaganda campaign, which aims to create new or reignite old historic issues which make cooperation in the region less likely, while at the same time undermining trust in Euro-Atlantic institutions – including both NATO and the European Union.Īs a result, the entire region, down to each individual country, is weaker, less open for integration and dangerously prone to subversion. Numerous reports describe the toolbox and options Russia is using for this. They added to the sophisticated A2/AD system with their long-range anti-ship missiles as well as the long-range land-attack cruise missiles.Ī number of NATO member states and non-governmental organisations have been vocal and candid about Russia’s malign activities which aim to erode democratic institutions by exploiting the features of open economies and societies. In 20, the Black Sea Fleet received the first of six planned upgraded KILO-class submarines and the first of six planned Admiral Grigorivich class frigates. As early as 2010, the Russian State Armaments Programme prioritised the Black Sea Fleet for a significant capability upgrade. But the deployment of substantial amounts of this new military equipment raises questions about the purpose and intentions hidden behind Russia’s buildup. Enhanced communications and surveillance systems and cyber warfare capabilities also contribute to this comprehensive A2/AD network, which will try to disrupt the electromagnetic spectrum and deprive foreign forces of its use. Additional elements may be added to the system – for example, advanced aircrafts, surface ships and submarines, and their capabilities for air superiority and for control of the seas. Land-based surface-to-air missiles, surface-to-surface ballistic or cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles are the capabilities most often used for building up A2/AD. What are the main challenges for NATO?The challenges to security in the Black Sea region are all interconnected and inextricably intertwined in the wider context of Euro-Atlantic security.Īnti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) is military jargon to describe the situation when a state deploys weapons systems, often with long-range capabilities, to deny foreign forces freedom of movement in the theatre. Beyond using conventional military force, Russia is applying asymmetrical means of warfare in this region, aimed at disturbing and incapacitating the nations’ sovereign decisions and their processes of democratisation and Euro-Atlantic integration. The latest and probably most serious threats to the European security architecture, openly challenging the established world order, have occurred in the Black Sea region: Russia’s conflict with Georgia in 2008, its illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its continuing destabilising activities in eastern Ukraine. Most Russia experts consider that Moscow is doing this primarily in pursuit of its strategic objective of great power status and the establishment of zones of privileged influence. Over the past few years, Russia has steadily upgraded its military posture and matched it with an uncompromising and assertive information campaign. Russia’s actions were in focus at the NATO Summit in Warsaw in July 2016, when Allied leaders clearly stated that “Russia’s recent activities and policies have reduced stability and security, increased unpredictability, and changed the security environment.” The region is home to three NATO members (Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey) and several NATO partner countries, so any instability or hostility in the area directly impacts the Alliance.
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